Late-season storms can bring Fall fury

Mobile - RAPID INTENSIFICATION

In less than 24 hours, Rina went from tropical depression to hurricane. Even at this time of year, tropical systems have the ability to surprise and thrive.

Hurricane Rina is not an anomaly even this late in the season. Other October storms have taken similar paths across the Caribbean and threatened South Florida. You may remember Hurricane Wilma in 2005. I sure do. I covered the storm from Fort Myers for Fox10. Wilma took nearly the same path Rina is forecasted to take.

CONDITIONS DICTATE STORM PATHS

Conditions in late October dictate these similar paths. There are generally strong upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico and cold fronts periodically moving south that grab the storms and take them from west to east across the Florida peninsula and off into the Atlantic.

There is a similar pattern as we move into November, but it's amplified, making it even less likely that a storm will reach the U.S., much less the Northern Gulf Coast.

EXCEPTION TO EVERY RULE

Every once in a while, a storm can find a window of opportunity, where the conditions back off just enough to allow the storm to make its way towards the Northern Gulf. Case in point was Hurricane Kate in 1985. It grew into a category three storm with winds of 120 mph in the Eastern Gulf. It did weaken before it made landfall just south of Panama City with sustained winds of 95 mph. But the really crazy part ... Kate made landfall over Thanksgiving weekend.

That's why we always track right up until the end of the season which wraps up on November 30.