NOAA predicts very busy hurricane season

Published: May. 24, 2022 at 1:41 PM CDT
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MOBILE, Ala. (WALA) - It should come as no surprise to the National Hurricane Center and NOAA have released a forecast for a very active hurricane season.

As many as 21 named storms, as many as 10 hurricanes, and as many as 3 to 6 major hurricanes.

Now how does all that compare to other forecasters? They are all very similar. All are making very bold predictions of a very active season and well above the average that has been increased in recent years due to high activity.

Why So Active?

Why are we looking at a busy season? Well, because of the conditions that are already in the tropics. As a refresher, for formation you need low 80° water temperatures. For moderate strengthening, you need temperatures getting up to around 84°. For rapid strengthening, you need 86° or above.

The Gulf Stream in the Atlantic is already in the mid 80s. The loop current in the Gulf of Mexico, just south of us, is also very warm and well above average.

And that’s not just at the surface. These currents go hundreds of feet down into the water, so when a storm moves over and it churns up the water it churns up very warm water and keeps strengthening.

La Niña

But warm water isn’t everything. You also have to have good conditions in the upper-levels and that’s coming courtesy of a La Niña, the cooling of east Pacific waters. That creates big changes in the Northern hemisphere upper-level winds, which would shear apart storms, making them weaken and move north. Opening the door for more storms, more organized storms, and more powerful storms.

Now is not the time to be scared though, it is the time to be prepared. Of course, here at FOX10 News, no matter how many of them there are we will track every single one of them all the way through.


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