Hurricane season 2022: Where named storms typically form in July and August

Activity forecast to ramp up as August gets underway
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Published: Jul. 7, 2022 at 8:07 AM CDT
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MONTGOMERY, Ala. (WSFA) - So far the Atlantic Basin has produced three named storms -- Alex, Bonnie and Colin. The good news is none of them produced significant impacts in the U.S. aside from some heavy rainfall.

Three may not seem very significant, but it is in terms of what’s considered “normal.” On average, the Atlantic’s third named doesn’t form until closer to early August.

A typical hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.
A typical hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.(WSFA 12 News)

That’s according on the National Hurricane Center’s ‘Tropical Cyclone Climatology’ page.

Of course there have been many years of late that have produced more than three named storms by the start of August. That’s why this year may not seem very active so far; because of what we’ve experienced over the last two decades.

Fortunately the rest of July looks pretty quiet across the entire Atlantic Basin. Nearly every long-range model and forecasting tool we have available to us shows quiet conditions in July.

Areas where most tropical activity is found in July.
Areas where most tropical activity is found in July.(NOAA)

If something were to change though, the areas most likely to see tropical development this month are off the East Coast of the United States, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

Those are considered the “hot spots” for tropical development in the month of July using historical averages.

As we advance into August there are signs of life in the long-range modeling. It’s impossible to say where or if storms will form at this juncture, but the overall “set-up” and conditions will support an uptick in tropical activity.

Areas where tropical activity is most likely to occur in August.
Areas where tropical activity is most likely to occur in August.(NOAA)

The areas to monitor in August are the western and central portions of the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Nearly all August storms form in those areas highlighted on the map above.

Once we get into September and October it becomes increasingly likely that the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean see spikes in tropical activity.

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