Dorian Thursday 11pm

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 19

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019

1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft

indicate that Dorian has intensified, and San Juan radar data show

that the eye is becoming better defined. Based on SFMR-observed

surface wind observations from the aircraft, the intensity is

increased to 75 kt. Dorian should remain in an environment of low

shear, within a moistening mid-level air mass, and over SSTs near 29

deg C for the next several days. This should allow for Dorian to

intensify into a major hurricane. The official intensity forecast

is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest DSHIPS model

output.

The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/11 kt.

Dorian should continue to move northwestward toward a weakness in

the subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. Later in the

forecast period, a ridge builds over the western Atlantic. This

evolution of the steering pattern should cause Dorian to turn

west-northwestward and head for the Florida peninsula. The actual

track of the hurricane in 3 to 5 days will depend on how much the

western Atlantic ridge builds during that time frame. This is, of

course, subject to uncertainty. The official track forecast is very

similar to the previous one, and close to the latest simple and

corrected dynamical model consensus.

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