Early September is when hurricane season peaks. It’s not uncommon at this time of year to be tracking multiple tropical waves, storms, and hurricanes.
Right now, we are watching three areas. Two of them are tropical waves in the tropical Atlantic and the deep tropical Atlantic off the African coast. The closer one doesn’t have any model support for development. The second one, off Africa, does in the extremely long range once it reaches the Caribbean. That’s more than a week out, so it’s too soon to worry much, we just need to watch it.
Another tropical wave north of Haiti will move northwest towards the Gulf of Mexico. Once in the Gulf it will have warm water to work with and a chance to develop. So what do the models say? Frankly they show very different scenarios. Since there is no developed center of circulation yet, the models don’t know where to start the system and therefore don’t have a good grip of where it may go or what it may become.
So what do we do know? One that are rain chances will go up this weekend, particularly Sunday. That there are possibilities that range from a tropical wave, to a depression, to a tropical storm in the Gulf. And lastly, no matter what develops, or what doesn’t, the models can’t give us any good idea exactly where this system is going to go as of yet.
So we’ll track, we’ll watch, and we’ll wait for more info.